I'm reading a really good document about risk analysis, and the author makes the point that when using probabilities to make predictions, at some point the future will unfold in a way that will make others perceive you were wrong. He emphasized "perceive" and that got me thinking.
We do that a lot. Someone does their analysis, makes a decision, and then acts on it. Like a football coach that decides to go for it on fourth down in overtime rather than punt and put the ball in the hands of the opponents' red hot quarterback. The play doesn't work and everyone says he was wrong. Oh yeah, based on what?
"Well, the play didn't work, that proves he was wrong." No it doesn't. It could merely be an instance where the future took the less probable path. It's gonna happen! Chances are good that his decision was right.
Someone's analysis and decisions should be judged only over time and against a pattern of how often the predictions come true. Additionally, we should judge them by whether their analysis has a feedback loop that learns from failure and how quickly they respond to the unexpected outcome.
Anything else is just Monday morning quarterbacking.